The policy gaps between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris must be among the widest in U.S. history.
The biggest gap in foreign policy, of course, is on Ukraine. Trump promises to get out of Ukraine before he even gets into the Oval Office, but has offered not a scintilla of substance of how he would do it.
Knowing he regards Putin as a strong man genius, he would cut a deal with Vladimir that would cede major chunks of Ukraine to the Russian invaders.
That probably would not carry the day as a viable deal, because the 32 countries in NATO do not align with his views on European solidarity.
So far this year the NATO countries have supplied $108 billion in military aid to Ukraine, while the U.S. has supplied $46 billion. NATO countries, far closer to the Russian threat, will not waffle, with the possible exception of Turkey.
The Harris team has made it clear that it will continue the policies of the Biden Administration with continued support in both military and humanitarian aid. The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday that nearly one million Ukrainians and Russians have been killed or injured in Putin’s war on its neighbor.
Citing the difficulties of obtaining accurate numbers of casualties, because neither side wants to admit to those ghastly outcomes, the Journal estimated from sources that 80,000 Ukrainian troops had been killed and another 44,000 wounded. The newspaper put the number of dead Russian fighters as high as nearly 200,000 and the wounded around 400,000.
Both countries are struggling with population decline before the war and are digging deep to sign up conscripts for the continuing bloody artillery and ground battles. The six remaining Republican Congress members from Wisconsin – minus Mike Gallagher who was bullied out of office – seem to be making a financial argument for suspending support for Vlodomyr Zelenskyy.
We have been spending an average of about $62 billion per year in 2022 and 2023 and projected in 2024. That’s about 7% of our current defense budget. It is also about 0.4% of our Gross National Product (GDP). Our European allies have matched that GDP percentage or more.
Poland, the Netherlands, formerly neutral Sweden and Germany are on par with our percentage of GDP. Countries closer to the gun barrel of Russia have extended themselves further, with Estonia at 2.6%, Denmark just across the Baltic at 2.5%, Lithuania at 1.6%, Latvia at 1.1% and Norway at 0.7%. In all, 30 countries have shipped weapons to Ukraine.
Let’s look again at this like a business person by examining the U.S. return on investment (ROI). While the political positions of our two political parties have not changed much during the campaign, the dynamics of war on the ground keep changing. Nonetheless, here is a quick ROI assessment:
While neither side is winning the war in Ukraine, Putin’s savagery has been contained at great cost to Russia, our biggest enemy on the world, ahead of China.
In addition to its casualties, Russia has lost one-third of its navy in the Black Sea to autonomous vehicle attacks by the innovative Ukrainians. They sank the Moskva, Putin’s prize missile cruiser in the Odessa harbor.
NATO has solidified as never before, and has expanded to include Norway and Sweden, which abandoned its long-held neutrality.
We have learned much about modern warfare. Our military has learned that it is more about cyber capabilities and unmanned weapons than about big ships and heavy artillery.
Most of the weapons sent to Ukraine by the United States have been produced in U.S. factories, a small boost for job creation here. We have learned that our supply chains for production of armaments and arsenals have withered and must be restored.
China must be having second thoughts about invading Taiwan, given the wreckage it sees to Russia’s military and economy.
Despite continual bluster, Putin has stopped short of using tactical nuclear weapons for two and a half years. He is not entirely stupid; he knows that NATO will retaliate in kind if he ever fires a nuclear shell at Ukraine. A following nuclear hit in Russia could end Putin’s regime.
Is that enough ROI for spending 0.7% of our defense budget to keep Ukraine viable against Russia? The American voters will be answering that question when they go to the polls Nov. 5.
