The unusual exodus of Republican legislators from the Wisconsin Senate and Assembly undoubtedly stems from differing personal factors by each office holder. But the dark pall over the Republican Party cast by President Donald Trump surely also figured heavily into their departures.
Six Republican senators are not seeking reelection, including Rob Hutton of Brookfield (left). That’s six out of 18 from the current GOP margin of 18-15.
No Democrats are retiring. Three Democrats are running for higher office, including Francesca Hong, who is running for governor, and two incumbent representatives running for the state senate.
It’s a similar GOP retirement story in the Assembly. Nine Republican representatives have decided not to run, including Reps. Rick Gundrum of Slinger and Rob Brooks of Saukville.
Rick Gundrum – 58th Assembly District
The fairly slim margins give Democrats an opportunity to tip control of the Senate by winning two seats held by Republicans. The probability of that happening is higher with the six Republican departures .
In the Assembly, the GOP currently holds a 54-45 majority. If the Democrats could pick up five seats from the nine districts with retiring Republicans, they would flip that body from Republican to Democratic control.
Rob Brooks (59th Assembly District)
Second-term President Trump has shown powerful clout in GOP primaries across the country, but across the U.S. population as a whole, where general elections will be decided in November, his positive polling numbers are at his all-time low. His disapproval ratings across a significant number of polls are north 58%.
More telling are his “strongly disapprove” ratings in some polls that are north of 45%. Those are people who hate his guts and everything he stands for.
You can be sure that Wisconsin legislators are getting an earful about Trump’s handling of the economy, his bumbling mismanagement of affordability, the damage from tariff uncertainty, inflation and decisions to use or threaten military power in at least four countries. These are national issues, but they inevitably spill over to state elections.
Trump is totally the face of the Republican Party. He blurts Truth Social messages profusely many times of day and night. He never shuts up. That blather has to be depressing to Republican office holders up and down ballots.
It isn’t just Republican legislators who are bailing out. But it also has been high profile GOP congressmen like Paul Ryan and Mike Gallagher of Wisconsin who deserted Trump’s party. Those level-headed and astute politicians are a big loss to the party and the country.
In addition to voluntary departures, President Trump is depleting the ranks of the GOP by endorsing challengers to sitting congressmen whom he deems disloyal to himself. That includes recently defeated Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and Rep. Thomas Massey of Kentucky.
In short, Trump’s army is in tatters at the Wisconsin and federal levels. The departees wanted to leave with their reputations intact.
The tests of whether Trump’s coattails are a plus or a minus will be crystal clear in Wisconsin come November. The president has endorsed Tom Tiffany, a northern Wisconsin congressman for governor, and Tiffany has enthusiastically welcomed Trump’s blessing.
The seven Democrats running for Wisconsin governor will be campaigning ferociously against Tiffany’s strong ties to Trump.
Another pro-Trumper probably angling for higher office is Josh Schoemann, Washington County executive who dropped out of his candidacy for governor, but has loudly supported Tiffany.
The northern Wisconsin Republican has a problem with name recognition in the southern part of the state. His TV spending has been huge to address that weakness. Since Schoemann hails from bright red Washington County in the southern part of the state, he could help address that gap if Tiffany picked him as his running mate.
Schoemann has said nothing about running for Lt. Governor, but has long let it be known that he has an appetite for higher office.
Polls in Wisconsin show similar negative ratings for Trump to what national polls report. That makes Wisconsin a pure test of which party is going to lead in Wisconsin in the last two years of Trump’s second term.
If Trump prevails broadly in November, you can bet that he will try to finagle an unconstitutional route to a third term.
That could lead to an even greater exodus from what used to be the Republican Party. When describing the GOP, it would require dropping the word “Republican” and calling it the “Trump Party.”
One final observation: The Republicans who gave left the party in Wisconsin can lay claim to at least one strategic victory. Wisconsin was long in the “Big Ten” for the level of state and local taxation. Getting rid of its reputation as a high tax state was always a Republican goal. Thanks in part to the level-headed stewardship of the retiring Republicans, Wisconsin is now in the middle of the pack among the 50 states. That has been a big win for competitiveness among the states and, therefore, economic development.
(Torinus was a chair of the Wisconsin Taxpayers Alliance, now defunct.)
