Will the seven Wisconsin Republican congressmen maintain their pro-Russian position (my characterization) now that Vladimir Putin has launched an intermediate range ballistic missile (IRBM), codename “Oreshnik,” meaning hazel tree in Russian, against a Ukrainian target?
The Russian president’s decision to use a hypersonic missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead came as a response to President Biden’s decision to allow the embattled Ukrainians to fire longer range missiles supplied by the United States against battle-front targets inside Russia.
The escalation of warfare started with Putin deploying 10,000 to 11,000 North Korean troops. They offset the heavy casualties suffered by Russia as they sent raw troops against tenacious and technically savvy Ukrainian warriors. Biden has also decided to supply anti-personnel mines to counter further Russian/Korean advances.
In stark disagreement with Biden, President-elect Trump and our Wisconsin GOP delegation see themselves as isolationists and budget hawks, not Cold War hawks and Russia as our biggest enemy. With Republicans in charge of both houses of Congress, they will push to cut off military support to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Rep. Glenn Grothman has long sought an “off ramp.” The Wisconsin Republicans, in effect, want to force a cease fire and settlement where Ukraine would lose 20% of its territory – at least until the next Russian incursion to take over the rest of Ukraine. It would only be a matter of time.
The reality that our Republican representatives don’t get is that our total $175 billion investment in Ukraine defense over almost three years has bought huge damage to the Russian military. That’s less than 8% of our annual defense budget. It’s a blue light special. We have no American troops in the fight. No body bags are coming home to the U.S., like they are in Ukraine.
Putin, meanwhile, is scraping to replace his manpower losses. Hence, the North Koreans.
And note that he used a conventional warhead on his high-tech missile, not the tactical nuclear warhead that he has been threatening. Putin is already a pariah in most of the world, and Russia is already a renegade nation. Heavily sanctioned, it has been frozen out of the mainstream of world trade to the detriment of his country’s prosperity for its citizens.
If he ever dropped a tactical nuke in Ukraine, there would be retaliation, a massive round of escalation. He would be seen as the greatest monster of all time. Even the Russian people might finally rise up against his presidency.
Even the Chinese would not be supportive of nuclear escalation.
I’ve been to Hiroshima. No one wants to endorse that ghastly outcome again. No one, except psychopaths
Harry Truman had overwhelming reason for his decision to use the A-bomb there. Putin has only empire grandiosity in his sick head.
Why haven’t the dictators learned? Countries, like China and Japan, get rich by innovation and trade, by making stuff that other people want. Not by war. War murders and impoverishes.
Republicans don’t realize it yet, but Biden gave Trump a bargaining chip against Russia. Trump, the self-anointed master deal-maker, could offer de-escalation of strikes deeper into Russia with U.S. weaponry in return for a truce acceptable to Ukraine.
Those deeper strikes have to be unnerving to Russians, even Putin’s loyalists.
At the same time, Putin continues to incur a face-losing war. At best, his forces have been stalemated — a long way from his public ambition of taking over the whole of Ukraine. More body bags will be going home to Russian mothers as the war escalates.
Further, Ukrainian technologists and manufacturers appear to be a step ahead of the Russians in developing a devastating new form of warfare — unmanned drones.
Ukrainians have manufactured and fired increasing numbers of sophisticated drones at targets on Russian soil. There was even a drone attack on Moscow.
The escalation, the mounting casualties and the continuing stalemate must be softening Russian resolve.
Even though incoming president Trump fancies himself close to Putin and has promised a quick end to the Ukrainian war, it’s doubtful that Putin feels the same warmth toward Trump.
But the Wisconsin congressmen should point out to their leader that the escalation may offer the “off ramp” they seek.
(Torinus is a former U.S. Marine artillery officer, once trained in tactical nuclear weapons.)
