Remember when President Trump said the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 would never have happened if he had been president. He implied that President Biden had been soft in foreign affairs, in contrast to his toughness.
He implied that his personal friendship with Russian President Vladimir Putin would have caused Putin to forestall his ambitions of restoring the Russian empire by conquering Ukraine.
But Putin’s recent complete disregard for Trump’s pleas for a cease fire in Ukraine, including when our president hosted the international war criminal on American soil in Alaska, makes clear that Trump’s bluster makes it clear that Putin has been toying with our president.
Instead of backing off, Putin has become more belligerent:
- By sharply increasing his drone and missile attacks on Ukraine, including cruel strikes on civilian apartments and government buildings in Kiev.
- By sending at least 19 drones deep into Polish air space to test NATO’s response, resulting in several shot down by Polish and Dutch jets.
- Threatening Finland as “a problem” since it joined NATO. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine backfired when it resulted in Finland and formerly neutral Sweden joining NATO.
In short, Trump not only failed to end the Russia-Ukraine war, he has made things much worse with his soft, equivocal stance. He spouts off but shows little backbone.
After the recent incursion into Poland, Trump mused on his web site, “What’s with Russia violating Polish airspace with drones? Here we go?”
Go where? So far, he hasn’t gone anywhere to challenge Putin. He is sounding like a spectator on NATO issues, rather than an ally. He is inscrutable at best.
To his credit in one dimension, he has used higher tariffs on India and threats of the same on China to push them to stop buying Russian oil — purchases that support Russia’s war machine. However, he has hedged on the China tariff increases, saying NATO countries have to stop all Russian oil purchases first. He’s right about NATO, especially Turkey, but he should lead first with tougher measures and then cajole.
The seven Republicans in the Wisconsin congressional delegation, have failed to push the president on Ukraine. The former hawks remain silent. Sens. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn) and Lindsay Graham (R-S.C.) have a bipartisan bill that pushes the president into oil embargoes and stiffer sanctions. Our delegation, both parties, should get on board.
As I have written before, Trump and the Republicans have many tools to bring about behavior change in the Kremlin. The shaky Russian economy and damaged military are vulnerable to all sorts of pressures: stiffened tariffs; more complete exclusion from the global banking systems; use of frozen Russian assets in Europe – estimated at $300 billion – to fund the Ukrainian defense; an end to the our $2 billion in purchases of Russian fertilizer; and obviously much higher levels of arms and ammunition support for the heroic Ukrainian armed forces.
If Trump followed his tough words aimed at Putin with tough measures, he, Ukraine and European allies have a good shot at being winners. To get Putin to the bargaining table, he has to be convinced he can’t win the war.
As it stands, Trump is looking befuddled and weak, like a loser. That’s a description his ego and his base can’t abide.
(Torinus is a retired artillery Marine officer and holds a degree in international relations from the University of Stockholm.)
