Donald Trump is reportedly frustrated and surprised that his self-acclaimed deal-making prowess hasn’t worked to bring peace in Gaza and Ukraine. He shouldn’t be surprised. He violated nearly every principle of negotiations that is used in business all day, every day. The results?
Instead of ending the war in Ukraine on “Day One” after his inauguration, as he repeatedly promised on the campaign trail, the war has intensified during his 100-plus days in office.
He now sees his “Day One” comments as a throw-away line, not to have been taken seriously. (He has walked back a lot of campaign rhetoric.)
What does the president expect when he gave away the store to Vladimir Putin at the very start of their one-on-one conversations. He also end-ran key players — European leaders, who are much closer to the Russian threat, and Volodymyr Zelensky, whose Ukraine lands are under daily attack. Trump essentially told Putin that the new border would follow the perimeter of the lands seized by Russian troops.
Knowing that, Putin played Trump. He stalled the peace process while pushing attacks to expand that perimeter. Wasn’t that an obvious response by Putin, a shrewd and brutal leader, to a dumb give-away?
Then, like a spoiled child who doesn’t get his way, Trump threatened to take his ball and bat and go home – to cease U.S. involvement in the three-year war. Putin would like nothing better.
Topping that, Trump is allowing military aid to Ukraine, granted under former President Biden, to run out. Again, Putin is stalling and must be licking his chops. He’s been grinning a lot in recent photos. Does Trump finally get it? Outcomes on the battle field are preeminent in negotiations. They always trump talk-talk.
The military support from Biden and NATO countries, who know Russian history and strategies far better than the relative rookies in the White House, has reduced relatively powerful Russia to a stalemate. (J.D. Vance never made sergeant in the U.S. Marine Corps.)
The stalemate has been a stunning victory of sorts for the Ukrainians. With our funding – no U.S. soldiers in the fight – about $40 billion a year over the four years, huge damage has been inflicted on the Russian economy and military. The $40 billion is arguably the best defense money we have ever spent.
Trump has recently proposed to increase the annual defense budget to $1 trillion, so continuing U.S. supply of weapons, munitions and intelligence would cost only 4% of the defense budget.
Europe, at Trump’s urging, has stepped up to fill the hole being left by Republicans, who control the Oval Office and both houses of Congress.
That brings up an obvious question. Where have Republican GOP congressmen been on this world-changing war? Where have the seven GOP Wisconsin congressmen been? I have read some of their literature sent out to constituents, and the subject of Ukraine is absent.
Most Republicans were once hawks on Russia. Two of the seven Wisconsin Republicans have served in the military, Scott Fitzgerald (on left) and Derrek Van Orden (on right). Do they not have a position on the war? Do they agree with Trump’s threats to bail out? Do they want to abandon our NATO allies of the last 80 years?
Our president is planning a huge soviet-style military parade in DC, not to celebrate VE Day 80 years ago, but his 79th birthday, June 14. With our military might on display, Trump will be playing the strong-man card, as dictators in other countries do.
Such cards are only valuable if their use is plausible in a shrewd strategic manner in times of actual or potential conflict.
I submit that sending our used weaponry to Ukraine is a much more effective playing of our cards than an extravagant parade.
(Torinus is a former Marine artillery officer and holds a master’s degree from the University of Stockholm in international relations.)
