On the hunt for a Nobel Peace Prize, President Donald Trump gave himself a 10 out of 10 for his efforts at the Alaskan summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin. I give him a zero.
In a follow-up meeting, some European leaders gave him an “A” for effort. I give him an “A” as a windbag.
Here’s what Trump didn’t get in his negotiations with Putin:
- An immediate cease fire, which he said was his bottom line. He sided with Putin, who wants to buy time in the war against Ukraine, by seeking a drawn out peace plan.
- Agreement from Putin on security guarantees for Ukraine after a peace arrangement.
- Any presence of any European NATO troops in Ukraine on closing a deal as a buffer against further attacks.
- Any prohibition against use of tactical nuclear weapons.
Our president, whose family made its millions in real estate, apparently thinks that this is a real estate deal. He talks about “swapping” properties, but neither Russia nor Ukraine is interested.
What our president doesn’t get is that the war and negotiations to end it are more like table stakes poker. The player with the most chips wins by raising the stakes to drive opponents out of the hand. Putin only understands such power and leverage. He is not interested in a fair fight.
In his blowup with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy last February, Trump told him, “You don’t have the cards right now. With us, you start having cards.”
Zelenskyy replied, “I’m not playing cards.”
So, Mr. President, let’s give Ukraine more chips. Let’s make that beleaguered country a “porcupine” as urged by Ursula Gertrud von der Leyen, head of the European Union.
Understand that Ukraine doesn’t have to win the war outright. It just needs to keep Russia in a stalemate – a very costly stalemate. Russia reportedly has sustained a million casualties, with about 250,000 killed in action. (Ukraine has suffered about 400,000 causalities with about 100,000 killed in action.) Both are estimates, but they are very real when the body bags come home.
In addition, the fragile Russian economy is hurting badly. Its inflation rate is about 20%; interest rates are about 9%; and growth is nil. Russia’s economy is based mostly on extraction of oil and other materials, and Putin has failed to turn it into a dynamic, innovative, growing economy.
Here are the chips and aces that Western allies could give Ukraine to convince Putin that he not winning this war and never will, that he must get to the bargaining table to prevent unrest among his subjugated people:
- Huge increases in armaments such as artillery shells, air defense systems and long-range missiles. Ukraine has already struck strategic defense facilities and petroleum depots deep in Russia. Ukrainian drones struck a big nuclear power plant Sunday. Continue to restrict the missile use to strategic targets and never use them to attack civilians as Putin has done in a barbaric manner in Ukraine. Let’s stay on the moral high ground
- Much stiffer economic sanctions on Russian shipments of oil to countries that are helping Russia pay for the war. Trump has already threatened tariffs on China and India for that purpose. Don’t talk about it; do it.
- Confiscate the $300 billion in Russian assets hidden in Europe and use those funds to fight Russia. For perspective, the U.S. has been giving Ukraine about $40 billion per year in support.
- Threaten to use U.S. air power to take command of the sky over Ukraine. Trump has already threatened deployment of our jet fighters.
- Russia and Ukraine have both sharply increased their production of drones. Give Ukraine more funds to accelerate its impressive production and innovation of drones, a game-changing technology.
- Invest heavily in American and European production of war weapons that have been allowed to deteriorate.
- Cut off all Russian banks from international commerce; some are still players.
- Restore the high-level intelligence for Ukrainian commanders that America once provided.
If you think this collection of anti-Russian measures is too tough, remember that Putin essentially gave his buddy Trump the middle finger by ramping up his attacks on Ukrainian civilians after the Alaska summit.
Now that Putin is insisting on a macro settlement of the war, Trump has the opportunity to enlarge the scope of the negotiations to include limits on nuclear weapons. Everyone on earth would like to see the renewal of the SALT Treaty that limits the U.S. and Russia to 1550 nuclear warheads. It expires February 4, 2026.
In a world where nuclear proliferation hangs darkly over the heads of future generations across the globe, Trump could grow angel wings if he pulls Russia and China into an extension of those arms limitations. A Korean-like armistice of the Ukrainian war could be part of a grand global compromise on warfare across the planet.
Now you are talking the stuff of a Nobel Peace Prize.
P.S. No Wisconsin Republican has pushed Trump to be a successful deal-maker, to be a more shrewd poker player.
