There is good reason for potential Wisconsin governor candidates to hold off on formally announcing their candidacies. They all have to calculate the declining approval ratings of President Trump on their prospects.
Josh Schoemann
Only Josh Schoemann, Washington County executive, has kicked off his campaign for a general election that is 16 months away. He is relatively unknown outside his home county, where he has officiated for 11 years, so getting across the state ahead of other entrants to gain name recognition is a necessity.
In a recent listening session at West Bend City Hall, he told a handful of voters that he would be spending three days a week on his county duties and two on the stump. He pointed out that his current elected position is salaried and that he gets calls on county business around the clock seven days a week.
It looks like Schoemann will be facing a Republican primary in the summer of 2026. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported recently that two other major candidates, Tim Michels and Eric Hovde, may be in the game next year.
Michels lost a close contest in 2022 to Gov. Tony Evers, despite or because of Trump’s strong endorsement and personal campaigning for him.
Hovde also lost a close statewide race. He was defeated in 2024 by Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin. He also was endorsed by Trump and was the beneficiary of the former President’s accolades while Trump was on the Wisconsin campaign trail. Trump narrowly carried the state, but his coattails didn’t help Hovde carry the day.
Both Hovde and Michels are multi-millionaire businessman and poured their own money into their campaigns. They can be expected to do so again if they choose to run.
But, and it’s a big BUT, would they seek Trump‘s complete support in 2026?
Schoemann has totally aligned himself with Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance. The county executive, an Iraq veteran, jumped on the Trump campaign bus for the 2024 election and expressed agreement in stump speeches with a range of the president’s positions from housing to the economy, inflation and immigration. He is a fan of DOGE, Trump’s cost-cutting axe.
Will that active campaigning for Trump across Wisconsin earn Schoemann an inside track with the White House? Who knows.
Money talks in politics, and Schoemann has far less of that commodity than Hovde or Michels.
By illustration, Elon Musk put at least $288 million into Trump’s campaign. It won him a short-lived seat in the Oval Office and a predictable horizontal position under the proverbial bus, where many of Trump’s associates end up. Risking billions in federal subsidies for his companies, Musk has become a fierce critic of the president’s landmark legislation.
Money will also play a big role in how many Republicans throw their hats into the ring for governor next year. Less well-healed GOP potential candidates, like Rep. Tom Tiffany from northern Wisconsin, may choose to stay in their current seats due to their funding disadvantages. It’s like table stakes poker.
Bill Berrien, a retired Navy SEAL officer and successful businessman, is biding his time, while reading the political winds.
Money and campaign efforts aside, the president’s plummeting approval ratings may be the main factor in 2026 election dynamics. Trump has lost some 20 points in the difference between his approval and disapproval ratings. He was slightly in positive territory after his election win, but now has an average poll approval of about 40%, with one poll at 38%.
His entrance into the Middle Eastern war may cost him a few more points from the loss of isolationists.
Will his downward ratings trend continue into 2026? He does enjoy pissing off different buckets of people, one after the other. That’s what Republican candidates for all offices have to be weighing. Do I want his endorsement or not? Will he punish me in the primaries if I don’t give him my complete fealty?
It is a sticky wicket.
Note: Trump swung a heavy hand for Republican Dan Kelly in the Wisconsin 2023 spring election against Democratic Judge Janet Protasiewicz. She clobbered him.
Note, too: Trump endorsed little-known Adam Steen in a GOP primary in 2022 against Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, who had refused Trump’s push to decertify the 2020 Wisconsin presidential election. It was a squeaky clean election. Vos won a narrow victory.
Note: Trump has backed three Republican winning representatives in the state: Derrick Van Orden, Brian Steil and Tony Wied. But his batting average in statewide elections in this very purple state is not very pretty.
